Centre interdisciplinaire sur les enjeux stratégiques (CIENS)

Year 2023-2024 > Semester 1

Why nuclear deterrence? Introduction to strategic questions

This course, led by Mélanie Rosselet, takes place in the first semester as a weekly class on Wednesday evenings from 6 to 8 pm. The aim of this seminar will be to study a series of strategic issues that are key to a proper understanding of contemporary international security and defense issues (nuclear deterrence, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, arms control and disarmament, strategic balances, European aspects, legal and ethical debates, economic issues, etc.), by placing them in the context of major current crises and unstable zones: Iran, North Korea, Asia, Russian-American relations, etc.

This course is shared with the Masters in International Relations and Security and Defense at the University of Paris II Panthéon-Assas, as well as with the Masters in Peace Studies at the University of Paris-Dauphine. It is also open to students of the Master de Géopolitique Paris I-ENS.

Recent major international security crises have served as a reminder of the extent to which the power policies pursued by individual states continue to play a key role in shaping the world stage. For a country like France – a nuclear-armed state, integrated into a network of alliances and solidarities, maintaining autonomous military capabilities across the entire spectrum despite a constrained financial framework – each of these crises raises the question of its international responsibilities and the right defense policy to adopt.

Which threats should be tackled first, which alliances should be consolidated, and which policy mix of conventional and nuclear capabilities should be developed? Is nuclear deterrence still a necessary foundation, and how should it fit in with other strategic tools? What is the European dimension of French deterrence? How should we communicate about deterrence?

The aim of this seminar will be to study a series of strategic questions that are key to a proper understanding of contemporary international security and defense issues (nuclear deterrence, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, arms control and disarmament, strategic balances, European aspects, legal and ethical debates, economic issues, etc.), placing them in the context of major current crises and unstable zones: Iran, North Korea, Asia, Russian-American relations, etc.

Validation: attendance and writing of a summary report (table-top test, with a professional situation, based on a file prepared by the teacher).

6 ECTS CREDITS

Contact: Pierre Ramond, pierre.ramond@ens.psl.eu

ATTENTION CHANGE OF ROOM: the course is now held at 46 rue d’Ulm, salle Favard (from Wednesday October 4).

Session schedule 2023-2024

Session 1 – General introduction to nuclear and strategic affairs: September 20, 2023

Seminar presentation. Discuss the main elements of a nuclear defense program, the main concepts and principles of deterrence, and the link with other major strategic issues.

Session 2 – Which threats for which defense policy? What nuclear strategy and doctrine? The example of contemporary France: September 27, 2023

Detail the main threats facing France and Europe; look at how a global defense policy is formulated; study France’s nuclear strategy and doctrine, past and present.

Session 3 – The NPT (1968) and the international non-proliferation regime: October 4, 2023

Reviewing the history of the negotiation and evolution of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons; detailing the three main pillars of the Treaty and their articulation with the other major international norms and instruments forming the international non-proliferation regime; explaining the different approaches to nuclear disarmament and taking stock of actions taken to date.

Session 4 – The US-Russian strategic relationship: October 11, 2023

Session 4 – The US-Russian strategic relationship: October 11, 2023

Review the major stages in the US-Russian strategic relationship; on this basis, detail the various concepts and legal norms used (transparency and confidence / arms control / disarmament); explore contemporary Russian and US nuclear doctrines; understand the issues at stake in the US extended deterrent today, in Asia and Europe.

Session 5 – Nuclear balances in Asia: October 18, 2023

Detail the major current trends in the nuclear arms race in Asia; study the interactions between the different theaters and the different major powers (South Asia, China, Russia, the United States); review North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, understanding the issues at stake in terms of regional, European and international security; study the diplomatic handling of the North Korean proliferation crisis.

Session 6 – Europe and nuclear weapons: October 25, 2023

Review Europe’s relationship with nuclear weapons, in its various dimensions (NATO, European Union, bilateral relations with or between European nuclear powers, etc.), and address the main contemporary political issues at stake; explore the European dimension of French nuclear deterrence and its historical evolution With Andreas Lutsch.

Session 7 – Economics and nuclear weapons: November 8, 2023

Apply the tools of economics to the nuclear field, and develop an economic analysis of nuclear deterrence, focusing in particular on its cost and economic impact. The second part of the session will review the channels used to finance nuclear proliferation, and study the actions taken at international level to respond to this threat (with Julien Malizard and Jean-Annet de Saint Rapt, tbc).

Session 8 – A concrete disarmament experience: November 15, 2023

Based on a case study (UNSCOM), study the challenges and difficulties of eliminating and verifying a weapons of mass destruction program, putting them into perspective with current situations (Syria, North Korea, Iran) (with Fouad El-Khatib).

Session 9 – Deterrence and technological developments: November 22, 2023

Study the links between deterrence, new technologies and new conflict environments (missile defense, space).

Session 10 – Strategic stability and arms control – contemporary issues: December 6, 2023

Return to contemporary and topical issues linked to strategic questions, arms control and strategic risk reduction, with a guest speaker from the French government.

Session 11 – Legal, ethical and moral issues surrounding nuclear weapons: December 13, 2023

Review the major stages in the legal debate on nuclear weapons; explore the evolution of moral, ethical and theological questioning of these weapons, culminating in the adoption by the United Nations of a Treaty banning nuclear weapons.

Session 12 – The Iranian nuclear crisis: December 20, 2023

Review Iran’s nuclear and ballistic programs; understand the stakes in terms of regional, European and international security; review the history of diplomatic handling of the Iranian proliferation crisis (with Pierre Ramond and guest).

Validation session: January 10 (4:30-8:30 pm), in Salle Cavaillès:

A table-top test of a summary report, based on a case study of a professional situation prepared by the teacher, organized for students wishing to validate the seminar.

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